The third time wasn’t a charm, either.
Idaho has failed to meet the criteria to exit Stage 4 for a third time, according to an analysis of data published by the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare.
Gov. Brad Little is scheduled to address the state’s coronavirus situation in a press conference at 9 a.m. Thursday.
Idaho needed to meet six criteria to advance out of the Idaho Rebounds plan. It met the criteria during the first three stages of reopening, but rapid spread of the virus in recent weeks means the state likely will spend at least two more weeks in Stage 4.
Stage 4, which has few remaining restrictions, began June 13. Idaho failed on health care worker infections and test positivity rate the first time, and based on the positivity rate the second time.
Idaho failed one of the criteria for the first time during its third attempt at Stage 4 — and is in danger of failing two more. It will pass two criteria based on the availability of health care. The sixth is too close to call.
Here’s a breakdown:
▪ Idaho averaged 23.4 emergency room visits per day with COVID-19-like illnesses during this 14-day evaluation period (July 6-19). It’s the first time the state has been above its 20-per-day threshold during reopening and is up from 17.9 during the previous attempt (June 22-July 5).
The state still could meet this criteria with a downward trend in daily ER visits over the 14 days, but according to the data published through Tuesday, the trend is slightly upward. It’s still possible the data could change — that happens with ER data — but usually cases are added rather than removed. Health and Welfare sets the last day of the evaluation period for ER data four days before a decision (Sunday in this case) with this in mind.
▪ Idaho reported an average of 514 new cases per day (confirmed and probable) during the 14-day window, up from 299.7 during the previous attempt. That’s the highest 14-day average the state has had at any point during the pandemic.
The state still could meet this part of the criteria if there was a downward trend in daily case numbers (there wasn’t), if the state’s positivity rate during the 14-day window was below 5% (we don’t have a final number, but the most recent statewide number reported was 14.5% for July 5-11) or if the daily positivity percentage trends downward. The daily positivity numbers aren’t publicly available, so it’s impossible to forecast that one.
▪ Idaho reported 314 new infections involving health care workers during the 14-day window — also a new high. That number hasn’t matched the state’s day-by-day numbers in the gating criteria reports, so again it’s impossible to forecast how this will play out. Last time, IDHW reported a downward trend in the daily numbers despite a large increase in infected health care workers from the previous attempt, so that could happen again.
▪ ER admissions with COVID-19-like symptoms will be close. The average was 1.93 through data posted Tuesday, but ER numbers frequently change days after the fact. Because the numbers are so small, one case can make a big difference. If the average reaches 2 — which would happen if one case is added to the numbers — the state would fail unless there’s a downward trend in the daily numbers. Based on the current numbers, the trend would be down. Still, this number also is the highest it’s been during reopening.
▪ Idaho is expected to meet criteria based on available ICU beds, ventilators and supplies, and for staying out of a “crisis standards of care” situation.
If Stage 4 is extended two more weeks, it would be scheduled to end Aug. 7. Ada County remains in Stage 3 at the direction of Central District Health.
And it’s possible the state’s criteria will change to some degree. Health and Welfare hinted at adjustments two weeks ago, but those were scrapped when federal reporting changes muddled the hospitalization data.
Based on the data available, Idaho hit new highs for daily hospitalizations (153 on July 13) and ICU cases (46 on July 18) during its most recent stay in Stage 4.
“We were considering including hospitalization data into our metrics, as they reflect most vividly the increasing burden of COVID-19 disease on citizens, and to the health care system, in our state,” wrote Kelly Petroff, IDHW director of communications, in an email to the Idaho Statesman. “With the sudden changes last week to the reporting system, we don’t currently know that our numbers received through the new Teletracker/HHS Protect system are comparable to what we were receiving through NHSN. We continue to work on this, and when we are confident that the data is accurate, we will reconsider adding hospitalization data to our metrics.”
Idaho’s average new cases by stage
Stage 1: 24.7 per day
Stage 2: 28.8
Stage 3: 36.5
Stage 4: 85.9
Stage 4, round 2: 299.7
Stage 4, round 3: 514
Note: These case numbers reflect the evaluation windows during each stage, which had slightly different dates than the actual stage.
This story was originally published July 22, 2020 2:57 PM.
