A look inside Idaho political news
A look inside Idaho political news
A look inside Idaho political news
A look inside Idaho political news
Late Wednesday, former state Schools Superintendent Tom Luna released a statement “in response to media inquiries” saying he was “strongly considering” a run. He likened the move to what Labrador did, promising an official announcement in the coming weeks. Unlike Labrador, he has not yet filed paperwork.
\n\nFormer ID Schools Supt Luna cites "recent media inquiries” - "strongly considering” run for Labrador seat - hasn’t filed paperwork. #idpol
— Bill Dentzer (@dentzernews) May 10, 2017
There’s already a Democrat officially in the race. Michael Smith of Post Falls, who filed paperwork in March, has a Facebook page and GoFundMe account, but he is not among the five potential candidates who have contacted the state Democratic party.
As of Tuesday, “One of those candidates was looking at how quickly he could get his paperwork in,” said Dean Ferguson, the state Democratic party’s interim executive director. Ferguson said those candidates range from Boise north to Sandpoint, but without official commitments, he couldn’t name names.
The district strongly favors a Republican — the more conservative, the more heavily favored. Labrador fit that mold. He easily won his fourth term in November, by 36 points and 68 percent of the vote.
The Cook Political Report rates the 1st District as 21 points more Republican than the national average in its Partisan Voter Index. That puts Idaho about 31st in Republican strength among the 435 districts in Congress.
A Democrat might perform better in the district, however, if there isn’t a conservative firebrand to galvanize the far right.
“With Labrador out of the picture that star power is gone from that race, and that really does open it up to not have his base of really loyal right-wing voters turn out to vote,” Ferguson said.
Besides Leroy and Luna, Republican names circulating include three state lawmakers, Sen. Bob Nonini and Rep. Luke Malek, both of Coeur d’Alene, and Rep. Mike Moyle, the House majority leader from Star. Among that group, Moyle and Nonini lean more conservative. That might give them the edge in a Republican primary. None can discuss a run until they are in the race officially.
“I think the 1st CD is really, really strongly conservative,” said Bruce Newcomb, the former Republican Idaho House speaker and government relations director for Boise State University. “Leroy to me has been kind of center right, but not far right. I don’t think he has the conservative credentials that Labrador established.”
What Leroy does have that the others don’t is experience running statewide. Idaho’s two congressional districts split the state roughly in half, east and west; the 1st District covers the entire western half of the state from Canada to Nevada. Leroy ran statewide when he won the race for attorney general in 1978 and the lieutenant governor’s race in 1982. He lost the 1986 governor’s race and the 1994 Republican primary for the same congressional seat, although the district boundaries were different then.
“It’s an advantage for Dave at the outset because he’s been there and done it successfully,” said Phil Reberger, a longtime friend and supporter. Reberger, partner in the Boise strategy and lobbying firm Sullivan & Reberger, was chief of staff to Gov. Dirk Kempthorne, Sen. Steve Symms and others. “A legislative district race doesn’t hold a candle to a districtwide race for Congress. It’s a whole new ball game.”
If it seems early days for all this activity, it’s not. The Republican primary is just over a year off, and given the lopsided advantage Republicans enjoy in Idaho, that’s likely where this race will be decided.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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With three other Republicans already in the race for Idaho governor in 2018, why did Rep. Raúl Labrador wait so long to announce his own bid?
First, because he had to. And second, because he could.
But the context, as events unfolded this week, is probably not what he had in mind.
Labrador, re-elected for a fourth term in Congress that started in January, had to observe a respectable amount of time working in Washington, D.C., before making official the plans he has long thought to have harbored for the governor’s office. Just weeks ago, he repeated that he would wait at least through the first 100 days of the new government in Washington and make his announcement “sooner, not later.”
That announcement just didn’t come soon enough – or late enough.
Before last Friday, Labrador was on a roll of mostly good publicity for holding all-comers town hall meetings through his district. The audiences he faced mostly opposed his positions on everything from public lands to health care — especially health care. But he held his own and even won grudging praise from critics for at least being among the courageous few federal lawmakers — and the only one from Idaho — hosting open-invitation public meetings with constituents.
Rumors circulated last week that Labrador would break his silence and announce his candidacy this week, as early as Monday. That was before he told another town hall in Lewiston Friday that “nobody dies because they don’t have access to health care.”
Those comments, captured on video, quickly went viral, followed just as quickly by equally viral outrage. The reaction prompted Labrador to issue a statement the next day, saying his comment “wasn’t very elegant.”
“He was getting so much favorable publicity out of the earlier town hall meetings, and rightfully so,” said James Weatherby, emeritus professor of political science at Boise State University and longtime observer of state politics. “He’s the only member the congressional delegation who’s been out there and taken the slings and arrows from opponents of the Trump administration.”
But, Weatherby added, Labrador “had to feel at some point the need to get involved in this race, with all of these other candidates active.”
So he went ahead and made his candidacy official Tuesday, despite the recent rocky press. Labrador couldn’t officially campaign or raise funds until he filed the papers for the race. Other candidates have been running for almost a year.
Next year will see a governor’s race without an incumbent running for the first time since 2006. Weatherby said the Republican gubernatorial primary could be the most competitive since 1978, when Allan Larsen won a six-way race that included a young Butch Otter, who’s retiring after three terms.
Larsen lost the general election to Democrat John Evans. But times and political fault lines have changed in red-state Idaho since then, and the winner in the Republican primary is now the presumptive favorite in the general election. The 2014 Democratic nominee A.J. Balukoff has said he’s still deciding what he will do.
Labrador, who’s become a leading national conservative figure in Congress as a charter member of the House Freedom Caucus, enters the Republican governor’s race as the likely frontrunner, given his notoriety and name recognition. That’s why he had a little more luxury, in terms of timing, to announce his candidacy.
\n\nHere in Idaho, we are leading the nation in job growth...#idpol #welcomeback #idgop pic.twitter.com/B4Xd3V5uMl
— Brad Little (@LtGovBradLittle) May 9, 2017
His three Republican opponents, Lt. Gov. Brad Little, Treasure Valley real estate developer Tommy Ahlquist and former Meridian State Sen. Russ Fulcher all were quick with statements Tuesday reacting to his entry.
For its part, the Labrador camp would not say anything Tuesday beyond the brief confirmation of his candidacy and a promise of a formal announcement “in the coming weeks.” His new campaign website, for now, is a placeholder.
\nHere's @Raul_Labrador announcement#idaho #governor #idpol pic.twitter.com/0hWKDLmliZ
— Bill Manny (@whmanny) May 9, 2017
\n\n@Raul_Labrador was 100 percent right. He should not have apologized. Health care's not a right. https://t.co/CsLkRL4uUi
— OpposeObamaCare (@OpposeObamaCare) May 9, 2017
Whatever flack Labrador took nationally for his comments in Lewiston Friday seems not to have influenced his timing on making the announcement, and that makes sense. There are fund-raising and other activities Labrador couldn’t do until he’d officially announced.
What’s more, voters in a closed Republican primary line up at the far-right end of the political spectrum. That’s to Labrador’s advantage anyway, especially in a crowded field that’s likely to see a lot of split votes, in a race where the winner might prevail with less than 30 percent of the total vote.
\n\nMeanwhile, fellow GOP candidate Tommy Ahlquist's response to Labrador getting in the gov's race #idpol pic.twitter.com/ntmuRqQnJv
— Kimberlee Kruesi (@kkruesi) May 9, 2017
That more conservative bloc isn’t likely to be put off by Labrador’s controversial remarks on health care.
“They know we live in a ‘Gotcha!’ culture,” said Rep. Brent Crane, R-Nampa, the Idaho House assistant majority leader and a Labrador supporter. “Primary election voters love Raúl Labrador. He has gone to Washington and said, ‘Look, this is what I’m going to fight for.’ And that’s what he’s done. I think he’s going to do very well.”
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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Rep. Raúl R. Labrador has added two town hall meetings in north Idaho next week, holding events in Lewiston and Coeur d’Alene on the same day, May 5.
Labrador will be at Lewis-Clark State College in Lewiston Friday morning at 11 a.m. The event is at the Silverthorne Theater, 500 8th Ave.
He will hold a 6:30 p.m. event that evening in Coeur d’Alene at the Lake City High School auditorium, 6101 Ramsey Road.
Times listed are local Pacific Time.
Labrador held recent town halls in the Treasure Valley, in Meridian on April 19 and in Nampa on Monday. Questions at both focused heavily on concerns about health care and possible revisions to the federal Affordable Care Act.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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Rep. Raúl Labrador has a second town hall meeting in the Treasure Valley on Monday to follow up his epic three-hour appearance in Meridian. Maybe there, amid another volley of questions about President Donald Trump’s travel and tax returns, health care reform, a possible government shutdown, immigration policy and the like, he’ll get to the question that’s really on everyone’s minds.
Is he running for governor in 2018?
The topic came up only briefly Wednesday at the Meridian Middle School auditorium, where the fourth-term congressman held forth in a stamina-testing appearance before a mostly unsympathetic but not overly unruly crowd.
Unlike some of his congressional peers who have gotten flustered and flubbed appearances before angry hometown audiences, Labrador kept it together and avoided any gaffes — if not a little controversy.
Earlier in the day Wednesday, at the Boise Metro Chamber of Commerce, he told Statesman local news editor Bill Manny and attendees that he “may have already decided” on whether to run. The Statesman would be the first to know, he said — along with everyone else.
\n\nLabrador tells @whmanny he "may have already decided" on gov run, but doesn't say which way-does add R-controlled DC makes decision harder
— Katie Glueck (@katieglueck) April 19, 2017
Labrador’s not in a rush and doesn’t have to be, enjoying that comfortable position of leading candidate-yet-to-announce. He’s inevitably part of any conversation about the race — initially, next year’s Republican primary — and enjoys the benefits of pent-up demand while he continues to demur. It’s like being a lesser member of a wedding party: You’re in all the photos but not paying for the whole affair.
Officially, the timing of any announcement from Labrador remains a vague “sooner, not later.” He has said he would wait through at least the first 100 days of the new administration, and a premature entry into the race, only months after starting his new term, might seem crassly opportunistic.
There is a downside to waiting. Lt. Gov. Brad Little announced his candidacy 10 months ago, former state Sen. Russ Fulcher last August, and Boise real estate developer Tommy Ahlquist in March. Labrador can’t raise money or officially seek support until he formally files the paperwork to run.
It’s not likely he’ll shed any more light on his plans in Nampa on Monday or at additional town hall events he is planning for North Idaho next month. He handles these events well and in fact likely benefits when he faces a crowd that, like the Meridian audience, mostly doesn’t support him.
The people he encountered there, mostly from the center-and-leftward swath of the political spectrum, aren’t the conservative voters he’ll need to court in what is now a closed Republican primary. That latter group is a bloc to whom Labrador only further endears himself when he spars publicly with the opposition and comes away, at worst, with a draw.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
Town hall Monday
U.S. Rep. Raúl Labrador’s town hall meeting in Nampa is at the Mission Aviation Fellowship, 112 N. Pilatus Lane, starting at 6:30 p.m.
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Sally Boynton Brown is stepping down after five years as executive director of Idaho’s state Democratic Party. She announced the move on her Facebook page Friday.
“When I started at the IDP, as field director, I said I would stay five to seven years and I am proud of all we have accomplished in that time,” Boynton Brown wrote. “We have come out of two very difficult election cycles — 2014 and 2016 — however the Party has responded by growing stronger and growing our membership.”
Boynton Brown, 41, jumped into the race for Democratic National Committee chair in December, at the time the only woman in the race and the only candidate from a western red state. She ultimately ran a distant third behind the eventual winner, former Obama Labor Secretary Tom Perez, and runner-up Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison.
She regularly put in more than 100 hours a week on party business as head of operations for the state Democratic organization.
“This is my life. I don’t have work,” she told the Statesman in December. “I am here to save democracy.”
In her post, Boynton Brown said the party’s former communications director, Dean Ferguson, would return to serve as interim executive director pending a search for a full-time replacement.
She said she had not decided on her next steps but planned to stay in Boise with her husband and family and “continue the investment we have made this last decade in Idaho politics.”
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
","template_type":"","story_teaser":"","lead_media":{"id":"146077174","url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/zd8a9a/picture146077174","asset_type":"picture","state":"published","title":"0101 ID Dem Ldr Profile 05","publication":"idahostatesman","layout_option":"","home":"/web/v1/sections/40476","modified_date":1492814327,"allow_comments":false,"allow_index":false,"allow_follow":false,"published_date":1492812912,"thumbnail":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/zd8a9a/picture146077174/alternates/FREE_1140/0101%20ID%20Dem%20Ldr%20Profile%2005","href":"/web/v1/content/146077174","access_tags":["matbasic"],"additional_sections":["40476"],"credit":"Statesman file photo","dateline":"","caption":"Sally Boynton Brown, who announced Friday she was stepping down as executive director of the Idaho Democratic Party, in her office in December, when she was a candidate for Democratic National Committee chair.","photographer":"Kyle Green","is_mugshot":false,"text_alignment":"Default","summary":"","byline":"","kicker":""},"owner":"Boise","allow_comments":true,"topic_tags":[],"image":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/zd8a9a/picture146077174/alternates/LANDSCAPE_768/0101%20ID%20Dem%20Ldr%20Profile%2005"},{"id":"145800684","url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/article145800684.html","asset_type":"story","state":"published","title":"Near and far, Labrador’s ‘health care not a basic right’ is town hall’s biggest takeaway","publication":"idahostatesman","layout_option":"none","home":"/web/v1/sections/40476","home_section":{"name":"Capitol & State","url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/"},"modified_date":1492739674,"allow_index":true,"allow_follow":true,"meta_title":"Labrador on health care \"right\" drives social media chatter","originating_url":"http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/article145800684.html","meta_description":"A five-minute exchange from the congressman’s three-hour town hall in Meridian Wednesday delivered the national headline and a wealth of reaction on social media Thursday.","published_date":1492720712,"thumbnail":"https://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/5615998029001/dd3d0f63-b79a-498e-9006-e7ef169eceb3/0827969e-3295-4265-8394-42c754b9ba9d/160x90/match/image.jpg","keywords":"Raul Labrador, Labrador, town hall, health, AHCA, Idaho, ACA, gap, JAMA, basic right, health care, Medicaid, expansion","access_tags":["matbasic"],"additional_sections":["40476"],"credit":"","dateline":"","summary":"A five-minute exchange from the congressman’s three-hour town hall in Meridian Wednesday delivered the national headline and a wealth of reaction on social media Thursday.","content":"
Always quick-triggered to defend his views, Idaho Rep. Raúl Labrador said a lot of things over his three-hour-plus town hall meeting in Meridian on Wednesday night that his deeply skeptical, often combative audience found objectionable.
And when they did, they were quick to let him know, with a chorus of boos and a sea of red “disagree” signs that have become regular audience favors at such events around the country, typically those hosted by Republican members of Congress.
As with other constituent meet-ups since President Donald Trump took office and Republicans extended their control of government, most of the questions put to Labrador touched on the new president — his policies and actions, his taxes, his repeat trips to Mar-a-Lago, and investigations by Congress and law enforcement into Russian meddling in the November election and possible collusion by Trump campaign associates.
Mostly, Labrador’s answers drew disapproval — although he did find favor with the crowd by agreeing that the cost and lack of transparency around the president’s frequent trips out of town were an issue for him.
Aside from Trump, the biggest topic of the night was health care, and Labrador’s response to one question drew the worst reaction of the evening, one that percolated across the Twitterverse and other social media Wednesday night and Thursday. That came about 23 minutes into the night, when a woman asked Labrador whether he believed that health care should be a basic human right.
\n\n.@Raul_Labrador : I do not believe that healthcare is a basic human right." Reaction: pic.twitter.com/5Senq8DLev
— Bill Dentzer (@dentzernews) April 20, 2017
His unfiltered, unqualified response: No.
Out came the boos and signs in the auditorium, and online, repudiation and disbelief.
\n\n@dentzernews @Raul_Labrador Basically every other civilized nation on the planet disagrees.@Raul_Labrador also said "unhealthy people should pay more." #winning
— Bix (@danbixby) April 20, 2017
\n\nHonest yet heartless response from @Raul_Labrador @ #LabradorTownHall. "I do not believe health care is a basic human right." https://t.co/xXKT7aZdnj
— Sam Sandmire (@SamSandmire) April 20, 2017
The exchange starts at about the 23:15 mark of the video below. The questioner cites an April 11 article and editorial from the Journal of the American Medical Association, a study on “Vital Directions for Health and Health Care.”
The study discusses a health system that “performs optimally in promoting, protecting and restoring” the health of people and populations, and helping them reach their potential. The question to be answered, Dr. Daniel Berwick editorialized, is whether the United States intends to achieve that vision. The nation and its leaders “need to ask and answer” whether the U.S. commits to “basic health care as a human right, denied to no one.”
Labrador’s questioner asked whether he thought so, and if he did, how he could assure that all Americans “receive the health care they need.”
“If you do not believe that health care is a human right,” she said, “then do you simply believe that only people who can afford to buy health care should get health care?”
Labrador responded: “No, I do not believe that health care is a basic right.” After the boos subsided, he added: “If something is a right, it’s something that must be provided by the government.
“But I do believe that people should have access to health care.”
The woman responded that she had “access” to buy a Mercedes. “The only problem is, I can’t afford a Mercedes,” she said. “How can people afford decent health care if it is not provided by the government?”
Labrador, again amid boos and catcalls, responded:
“I think we should we take care of people that cannot work, that cannot provide for themselves. I do think we have a responsibility for those people. But if you’re a working person, if you’re a person that can provide for yourself, I think we should make it easier and less expensive for you to receive health care.”
Pressed further by the woman on how poorer people get health care, Labrador said that group mostly relies on Medicaid. That drew more boos.
The issue is front and center in Idaho, embodied by the so-called gap group of working adults, some 78,000 who do not qualify for Medicaid or for insurance subsidies available on the state health exchange created under the 2010 Affordable Care Act. The Republican-dominated Legislature, after approving the exchange, has balked on ACA’s provision to expand Medicaid for that uninsured group.
Labrador, who opposed the GOP-led overhaul of the ACA that died in Congress last month without a vote, nevertheless said “one of the good things” the proposal did was provide money to “take care of that gap group that you’re talking about.” He cited a figure of $100 million, but likely meant the $100 billion figure the bill proposed to make available to states for various contingencies, including care for the sickest people.
“We’re trying to create a system that reduces the cost of health insurance for all Americans, and we do want to help people that are vulnerable with that $100 (billion) that we were putting into the bill,” he said. “We are trying to help people that don’t have access to health care, but I just don’t think it is a right to have health care.”
That hardly mollified the crowd. As Labrador crossed the stage to take the next question, someone yelled out to him:
“Where do you get your health care?”
“Before I was a member of Congress, I got it for myself and provided it to the five families that worked for me,” he answered.
That exchange became the headline for most of the follow-up coverage of the marathon event on Thursday and drew social media attention all day.
\n\nI do not believe that @Raul_Labrador is a basic U.S. Senator. https://t.co/wFEoLOTFFO
— Gary Young (@proudindiv) April 20, 2017
Of course, he’s a U.S. representative, not a senator, and a possible candidate for governor in 2018. But the point is understood.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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To Idahoans who since January have clamored for town hall meetings with their congressional representatives: Rep. Raúl Labrador has scheduled two such events next week in Meridian and Nampa.
Labrador, a leading member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, will hold a town hall April 19 at 6:30 p.m. in the Meridian Middle School auditorium, 1507 W. 8th St.
His second will be in Nampa on April 24 at the Mission Aviation Fellowship, 112 N. Pilatus Lane, also at 6:30 p.m.
Idaho’s all-Republican delegation has been under heightened public pressure to be more available and accountable to constituents since the election of President Donald Trump. The pressure has come mostly from Trump opponents pressing their representatives either to disavow the president’s agenda or explain and defend their support for it.
Labrador and other House conservatives split decisively from the White House last month on the failed GOP-led effort to repeal and replace the 2010 Affordable Care Act, prompting a public squabble with the White House on Twitter.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
","template_type":"","story_teaser":"","lead_media":{"id":"144015349","url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/6o9i1h/picture144015349","asset_type":"picture","state":"published","title":"labrador pic","publication":"idahostatesman","layout_option":"","home":"/web/v1/sections/40476","modified_date":1491946631,"allow_comments":false,"allow_index":false,"allow_follow":false,"published_date":1491944968,"thumbnail":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/6o9i1h/picture144015349/alternates/FREE_1140/labrador%20pic","href":"/web/v1/content/144015349","access_tags":["matbasic"],"additional_sections":["40476"],"credit":"AP","dateline":"","caption":"Rep. Raúl Labrador, R-Idaho, leaves a closed-door strategy session with House Speaker Paul Ryan in late March.","photographer":"J. Scott Applewhite","is_mugshot":false,"text_alignment":"Default","summary":"","byline":"","kicker":""},"owner":"Boise","allow_comments":true,"topic_tags":[],"image":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/6o9i1h/picture144015349/alternates/LANDSCAPE_768/labrador%20pic"},{"id":"144588624","url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/article144588624.html","asset_type":"story","state":"published","title":"Quick fixes, but no serious tax overhaul: After veto of grocery tax repeal, what’s next?","publication":"idahostatesman","layout_option":"none","home":"/web/v1/sections/40476","home_section":{"name":"Capitol & State","url":"https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/"},"modified_date":1492205743,"allow_index":true,"allow_follow":true,"meta_title":"After repeal veto: Idaho tax cuts fail again, lost amid the zeal for the quick fix","originating_url":"http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/politics-blog/article144588624.html","meta_description":"Analysis: Idaho’s lawmakers fail again, lost amid zeal and haste. They keep pressing for tweaks and pet projects, with little heed for long-term realities or a comprehensive approach to reform.","published_date":1492179403,"thumbnail":"https://cf-images.us-east-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/5615998029001/919583d4-3be0-49d0-a3ae-22111658c2a0/692ad3d4-4982-450e-ba67-6882a94ac6d7/160x90/match/image.jpg","keywords":"Idaho, grocery, tax, veto, reform, sales, repeal, cut, 2017, Idaho, legislature, Moyle, Bedke, Otter veto, Gov. Otter, Butch, Speaker, Hoffman","access_tags":["matbasic"],"additional_sections":["40476","7089"],"credit":"","dateline":"","summary":"Analysis: Idaho’s lawmakers fail again, lost amid zeal and haste. They keep pressing for tweaks and pet projects, with little heed for long-term realities or a comprehensive approach to reform.","content":"
The twin failures of the Idaho Legislature’s tax reform efforts this year — one coming in legislative chambers last month, the other this week under the governor’s veto stamp — point again to a tacit consensus that state lawmakers routinely fail to heed, either in their zeal to cut any tax they can, or by overlooking the larger context and lessons of history.
That consensus holds that if Idaho lawmakers really want to cut taxes — and poll after state poll shows they are among the few constituencies who are really exercised about it — they won’t get far if they don’t look at the big picture. Nor can they expect to prevail by picking off only low-hanging fruit.
The 2017 tax debate kicked off in the Legislature, as it often does, with an income tax cut plan floated by House Majority Leader Mike Moyle. It passed the House in January but got hijacked in the Senate, where members bucked leadership and converted Moyle’s bill into a repeal of the state sales tax on grocery food.
The House concurred with the changes. But at the same time, Moyle, looking to force the question on what has long been his pet project, bolted his income tax cut onto another bill aimed at reducing out-of-whack unemployment taxes employers now pay. When that amended bill died in the Senate on the session’s last day, Moyle had lost the fight again, this time taking with him hundreds of Idaho employers who currently pay too much in unemployment tax.
The irony is that had Moyle’s original plan passed the Senate and reached the governor’s desk, Gov. Butch Otter was poised to sign it. The governor said as much when he vetoed the grocery tax repeal on Tuesday. The income tax cut carried a smaller financial impact — less than $30 million, compared to $80 million on the grocery tax repeal. Otter vetoed it on the ground that the state couldn’t take such a hit on revenue, but told lawmakers to send him his unemployment tax bill, together with a modest income tax trimming, “as soon as possible” next year.
Otter’s veto incensed lawmakers, and several announced a quixotic effort to get the veto overturned in court. That’s not likely to happen, but it plays well to the crowd.
To step back for a moment: Polling in recent years consistently shows that state residents aren’t as concerned about taxes as they are about education, jobs or health care — or in continuing declining order, the environment, public lands, immigration or population growth. The subject of taxes in the latest Boise State University survey earlier this year came next to last on the list of issues. In both BSU’s 2016 and 2017 surveys, two-thirds of respondents had a Goldilocks response regarding taxes, saying they were just about right. (Idaho’s relative tax burden also consistently ranks low in national per-capita comparisons.)
The reaction is different, however, when the question is asked in the context of what neighboring states do. Montana and Oregon, for example, have no sales tax. Nevada, Washington and Wyoming have no income tax. If the choice is between having a low or moderate tax vs. not having one at all, the choice for most people is obvious.
Idaho keeps going about tax reform in grasping, almost impulsive fashion. The grocery tax repeal substitution was a procedural power grab on the Senate floor. Remember the “tax working group” of lawmakers assembled in 2015? They held eight public sessions, heard from dozens of experts and advocates, comprehensively reviewed decades of state tax policy. In the end, what they delivered was a handful of conventional, timeworn options to cut the income tax, the business tax on property purchases or kill the grocery tax.
The effort to repeal the grocery tax united anti-tax lawmakers and like-minded interest groups with others who see a tax on food as particularly insidious: How, after all, can a government in good conscience tax items that all people need to live? But that’s exactly the point: A tax on food is seen as stable revenue source that is immune to economic fluctuations.
Of the 45 states with a sales tax, 32 exempt food bought for consumption at home. Six tax it at a lower rate. Three tax it at the going rate. And four, including Idaho, offer an offsetting tax credit. Idaho’s credit is $100 per person, $120 for seniors.
Another repeal argument asserts that Idaho’s border communities lose out both in sales and business expansion opportunities to the neighboring states that don’t tax sales. There is no data to support or refute this anecdotal claim; other surveys of why businesses pass on Idaho for relocation or expansion usually cite concerns over education as the main factor in their decision, not taxes. And a counterclaim holds that revenue from the sales tax on food gives the state a boost from vacationers and other visitors to the state.
Finally, there is a case made that repealing the tax helps lower-income families. That might seem true based on percentages, because those at the lower end of the income spectrum tend to spend a greater share of what they earn on food. In real dollar terms, though, the greatest benefit of repeal accrues to wealthier households that buy more expensive food.
A December 2016 report by the Idaho Center for Fiscal Policy projected the impacts of a grocery tax repeal across the full income range. The lowest 20 percent of earners actually could see their tax bill increase by $16 under a repeal scenario. How is that? Because the offsetting credit they receive is greater than what they pay in sales tax on food purchases.
The tax savings is highest for those in the top 20 percent income bracket — those for whom a food tax might be considered least burdensome — ranging from a base of $99 to $234 for the top 1 percent of earners.
Another way to look at it: Under the current system a family of five spends nearly $700 a month on food before they would pay more in sales tax than they receive in credits. A more balanced solution, say tax fairness advocates like the Center for Fiscal Policy, would be to increase the food tax credit for all residents, for just those in the lower-income brackets, or tie the credit to food inflation.
Discussion and debate on any one Idaho tax misses the big picture. The state often looks enviously at Utah’s tax structure, but Idaho lawmakers cannot find their way to enact the kind of sweeping tax review and overhaul that state undertook starting in 2005.
Idaho’s 2015 tax working group was the latest group to punt on it. Utah has a single income tax rate of 5 percent, a lower rate that is actually applied to a higher amount of adjusted gross income. But it’s the rate, not the actual tax paid, that so captivates Idaho’s tax foes.
Besides simplifying and fine-tuning the state’s income tax structure and reducing and consolidating rates, lawmakers also could undertake a long-overdue review of the state’s outdated sales tax exemptions. Those exemptions cost the state $2.2 billion in foregone tax revenue this year, a figure that is forecast to climb by about $100 million annually through 2019. Services are excluded from sales tax, but tax experts say such policies need a review with the rise of service-based economies.
Last month, as the doomed grocery tax repeal moved through the Legislature, House Speaker Scott Bedke opposed it. He told anyone within earshot that his preferred tax plan would eliminate all but the original sales tax exemptions carved out in 1965. That could be worth more than $250 million in additional tax revenue a year — more money for schools, roads, workforce development or greater flexibility to lower other taxes.
Such a comprehensive review, by itself, could spur confidence in the business world at large that Idaho was serious about tax reform.
But with so many sacred cows in the list of exemptions, someone’s ox — to mix species metaphors — is bound to get gored. It is much more politically palatable for lawmakers to put up repeal of a widely disliked but critical revenue source such as the grocery tax, even if some perhaps voted for it full in the knowledge that the governor couldn’t let it happen.
There’s no intersession tax study this year. And with statewide and legislative elections coming in 2018, it hard to see lawmakers next year doing any better than this year’s contorted tax dance.
Given the governor’s veto language, and how close lawmakers actually got to a tax cut this year, they might succeed with the same modest tweak to the income tax.
But a heavier lift on tax reform, one that could actually strengthen state collections while trimming taxes and making them more fair, isn’t anywhere on the horizon.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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Idaho has seven statewide elected offices. When those four-year terms are up in 2018, at least three of the seats will be open, with no elected or appointed incumbent running.
The last time that many statewide races were open at one time was a generation ago. And there could be more.
Here’s where things stand, nearly a year before the March 2018 filing deadline.
Governor: Third-term Gov. Butch Otter, 74, currently the longest continuously serving governor in the country, is not seeking re-election. Six candidates, including three Republicans, have declared their candidacies thus far.
The last time the governor’s race was an open affair was in 2006, when Otter first ran. His predecessor, Dirk Kempthorne, had resigned that May to become President George W. Bush’s Interior secretary. Then-Lt. Gov. Jim Risch served out Kempthorne’s term but had previously committed to run again for lieutenant governor.
To date, the leading candidates to succeed Otter, given the Republican advantage in Idaho, are Lt. Gov. Brad Little, developer Tommy Ahlquist and former Meridian state Sen. Russ Fulcher. U.S. Rep. Raúl Labrador remains a likely additional GOP contender. One Democrat and two independents also have filed papers to run. Otter’s 2014 Democratic challenger, A.J. Balukoff, said he’s considering another run.
Lieutenant governor: With Brad Little running for governor, the race will have no elected or appointed incumbent running for the first time in more than 30 years. In 1986, incumbent Republican David Leroy ran for governor and Otter won the race to begin a 14-year tenure as Idaho’s No. 2 statewide officeholder, the longest ever.
Three candidates have declared to date, all Republicans: Sen. Marv Hagedorn of Meridian, former Idaho Falls Rep. Janice McGeachin and McCammon Rep. Kelley Packer. Idaho’s state Republican chairman, Steve Yates, is stepping down from that post and considering a run.
Treasurer: After five terms, incumbent Ron Crane is not seeking re-election. The last time the office saw an open race was when Crane first ran in 1998. Kevin Jones, who runs an investment company in Boise, is the first declared candidate, running as a Republican.
The other statewide officeholders are Secretary of State Lawerence Denney, Attorney General Lawrence Wasden, State Controller Brandon Woolf and Superintendent of Public Instruction Sherri Ybarra. No challengers have declared in those races.
In 1994, races for governor, attorney general and school superintendent were open contests. Since then, no more than two races in the quadrennial state contests have been open at the same time. In 2014, the open races were for secretary of state and school superintendent.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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Members of the Idaho Senate often stand on the last day of the session to give short closing or farewell remarks before the Senate adjourns for year. Typically it’s to thank or praise colleagues or staff, review the year’s achievements, or warm up their vocal cords in preparation for the annual singing of the official state song, “Here We Have Idaho.”
Sen. Fred Martin rose Wednesday to give thanks to one colleague who, if rumors bear out, might not be back next year: Majority Leader Bart Davis.
The Idaho Falls Republican is in his 10th term, eighth as majority leader, and is thought to be a candidate to be the next U.S. attorney in Idaho — though no one’s commenting, including Davis.
Martin, a Boise Republican, was circumspect, saying he rose “reluctantly” to “address maybe the elephant in the room.”
“No one’s irreplaceable, but there’s always an exception to the rule,” he said. “I hope that we’re together this next year, but if we’re not, Sen. Davis, thank you.”
Davis, who as majority leader directs the daily flow of business and legislation on the Senate floor, was visibly moved after adjournment as colleagues came to his desk to shake hands or hug him.
But he wasn’t commenting on the rumor.
“My term doesn’t end till the end of next year, so yeah, I was planning on coming back,” he said guilelessly.
U.S. Attorney for Idaho Wendy Olson, an appointee of Barack Obama, announced her departure in January before President Trump asked for all U.S. attorneys to submit their resignations. The office remains vacant.
U.S. attorneys are nominated by the president and confirmed by the Senate, with local area senators providing recommendations. Representatives for Idaho Sens. Mike Crapo and Jim Risch said Thursday the selection process for Olson’s successor was still underway and more than one candidate was being considered, with no timing set for a decision.
Davis, 62, works in commercial, business, real estate, and bankruptcy law. He is one of Idaho’s commissioners on the Uniform Law Commission, which drafts and promulgates legislation for states to promote uniformity across jurisdictions. He earned his law degree from the University of Idaho.
Bill Dentzer: 208-377-6438, @DentzerNews
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